企业并购中金融危机的防范研究

企业并购中金融危机的防范研究(16000字)
中文摘要
    从20世纪80年代至今，我们已经经历过多次金融危机，最近最严重的一次是美国2007年的次贷危机和现在还在继续发酵的欧债危机，尽管现代的经济学及金融理论已经有了长足的发展，但我们好像仍然无法避免每隔一段时间就必然会爆发一次金融危机的现象。本文将总结过去所发生的金融危机的一些共同特点，以及周期性爆发金融危机对企业并购行为可能会带来的影响。本文认为周期性金融危机与国家宏观经济指标，经济发展政策有非常密切的联系，现代金融市场高度发达一定程度上使金融危机具有某种“自我实现”的趋势，企业的投资行为特别是并购行为必须注意到现在的经济环境和金融环境变得日趋动荡，在全面市场化条件下的融资必须更多考虑到周期性金融危机可能带来的额外风险。本文最后对吉利并购沃尔沃的案例做一个简要的风险分析。
关键词: 利率；融资；金融风险；自我实现；信贷消费；防火墙

Financial Crisis and Corporate Acquisitions Case Study
Abstract:
From the 1980s to the present, we have experienced many financial crises. The most serious recent crises is 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis. Although modern economics and finance theory has been made in development, however, we still seemed unable to avoid the phenomenon of the financial crisis which is bound to break out from time to time. This article will summarize some common features of the financial crisis occurred in the past and periodic outbreak of financial crisis to impact of corporate merger and acquisition activity。 In this paper believe that cyclical financial crisis and the country's macroeconomic indicators, economic development policies have very close ties. Under highly developed modern financial markets , the financial crisis has some kind of "self-realization" of the trend on a certain extent . Investment behavior of enterprises, in particular mergers and acquisitions, must be noted that the current economic and financial environment becomes increasingly turbulent. Financing under full market conditions must be taking into account that the cyclical financial crisis may bring additional risks. Finally, we make a brief risk analysis to the case of the acquisition of Volvo and Geely. [资料来源：http://think58.com]

Keywords: Interest rate; Financing; Financial risks; Self-realization; Consumer credit; Firewall

目录
第一部分 选题说明    1
(一)研究的背景及意义    1
(二)研究的现状    1
(三)研究思路和主要内容    1
(四)研究方法    1
(五)论文的创新点、重点和难点    2
第二部分 吉利并购沃尔沃的案例    3
一 吉利并购沃尔沃的背景    3
（一）国债，货币与GDP发展趋势    3
（二）2007年美国次贷危机    8
（三）2010年希腊债务危机（欧债危机）    10
（四）金融危机的自我实现    12
二 吉利并购沃尔沃的案例描述    14
（一）吉利并购沃尔沃的过程    15
（二）关于吉利的融资活动    16
第三部分 案例分析    21
（一）风险分析    21
（二）结论    23