长三角与珠三角人口老龄化时空变化对比研究

长三角与珠三角人口老龄化时空变化对比研究(论文17000字)
摘 要：人口老龄化是全球发展面临的共同议题，特别是随着我国经济腾飞，人口老龄化所带来的社会效应越来越凸显，一方面是“人口红利”逐渐消失所带来的经济增长乏力、经济模式冲击，另一方面是老龄化程度逐渐加深给养老、社会保障等公共服务带来的巨大压力。本文利用老龄化的程度、速度等评价指标，空间自相关分析和Arcgis相关功能，基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查数据，对长三角、珠三角区域的人口老龄化状况进行比较分析，研究表明：（1）两个地区老龄化状况处在不同阶段，长三角地区老龄化形势越发严峻，而珠三角自始至终未表现出明显的老龄化；（2）两个地区老龄化状况受经济、社会等因素影响表现出显著差异，长江三角洲地区主要表现为经济水平差异导致的老龄化和人口迁入导致的老龄化并存，而珠江三角洲地区则主要表现为人口迁入型老龄化。
关键词：GIS；人口老龄化；长江三角洲；珠江三角洲；时空差异；影响因素

Comparative Study on the Temporal and Spatial Changes of Population Aging in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta
Abstract: Population aging is a common issue faced by global development. In particular, as China's economy takes off, the social effects brought about by the aging of the population are becoming more and more prominent. On the one hand, the economic growth caused by the gradual disappearance of the “demographic dividend” is weak. And the impact of the economic model; on the other hand, the gradual deepening of the ageing population has brought tremendous pressure on pensions, social security and other public services. This paper makes use of the evaluation indicators of ageing, speed, etc., spatial autocorrelation analysis and ArcGIS related functions. Based on the 2000 and 2010 national census data, it compares and analyzes the aging population in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. The research shows that: (1) The aging of the two regions is at different stages. The situation of aging in the Yangtze River Delta region has become increasingly severe, and the Pearl River Delta region has not shown significant aging from beginning to end; (2) The aging of the two regions is affected by the economy, Social and other factors have shown significant differences. The Yangtze River Delta region is mainly characterized by the aging of economic disparity and the population migration aging. The Pearl River Delta region is mainly characterized by the population migration ageing.

Keywords: GIS; population aging; Yangtze river delta; Pearl river delta; spatial and temporal differences; influencing factors.
 
目 录
摘 要：    - 1 -
1 绪论    - 2 -
1.1选题背景与意义    - 2 -
1.1.1选题背景    - 2 -
1.1.2研究意义    - 2 -
1.2 技术路线    - 3 -
2 国内外研究进展    - 3 -
2.1 国外研究进展    - 4 -
2.1.1 老年人口区域差异研究    - 4 -
2.1.2 人口老龄化与经济发展之间的相互作用    - 4 -
2.2 国内研究进展    - 4 -
2.2.1 人口老龄化的时空分布研究    - 4 -
2.2.2 人口老龄化对经济发展的影响    - 4 -
3 研究区概况与研究方法    - 5 -
3.1 研究区概况    - 5 -
3.2 数据来源及说明    - 6 -
3.3 研究方法    - 6 -
3.3.1 老龄化系数    - 6 - [来源：http://www.think58.com]
3.3.2 老年人口集中度    - 7 -
3.3.3 人口老龄化速度指标    - 7 -
3.3.4 老年人口抚养比    - 7 -
3.3.5 人口老龄化密度指标    - 8 -
3.3.6 空间自相关分析    - 8 -
4 研究区人口老龄化时空特征分析    - 9 -
4.1 人口老龄化系数时空差异分析    - 9 -
4.2 老龄人口集中度时空差异分析    - 10 -
4.3 人口老龄化速度时空差异分析    - 12 -
4.4老年人口抚养比时空差异分析    - 13 -
4.5老年人口密度时空差异分析    - 15 -
4.6 老年化系数的空间自相关性分析    - 16 -
5 老龄化区域差异影响因素分析    - 19 -
5.1 研究区域城市老龄化情况分类    - 19 -
5.2不同类型人口老龄化影响因素分析    - 19 -
5.2.1经济发达型老龄化影响因素分析    - 19 -
5.2.2 经济落后型老龄化影响因素分析    - 20 - [来源：http://www.think58.com]
5.2.3 人口迁入型老龄化的影响因素分析    - 20 -
6 结论与展望    - 20 -
6.1 结论    - 20 -
6.2 展望    - 21 -
参考文献    - 21 -
致 谢    - 22 - [来源：http://www.think58.com]